Predicting Presidents & Charlotte Real Estate Prices

 

There are people who are very interested in politics, especially in the US presidential election every four years.  “It’s the most important election of our lifetime!  Think of the children!”  I don’t fall into this camp.  However, I do like to try to predict who will win.

 

That doesn’t mean I’m any good at it, unfortunately.

 

I try to use “common sense” on who will win- ha, ha!  Below are the actual winners from the past few elections and my rationale at the time for why there was no way they could win:

 

2008: Barack Obama.  I was wrong.  I didn’t see how a community organizer with no experience running anything could win.  Plus, he shared his middle name with a top, evil dictator.

 

2012: Barack Obama.  I was wrong again.  The economy was in shambles and the “Great Recession” was on his watch.  I wasn’t sure that President Obama could effectively keep blaming former President GW Bush for the poor economy his entire term.

 

2016: Donald Trump: Wrong on this one too.  Where do I start on how I didn’t think his election was possible?  I mean he didn’t even think he was going to win.

 

2020: ???  Pollsters say Joe Biden is close to a shoo-in. 

 

Now let’s shift to Charlotte real estate.  When COVID-19 began to affect our lives in March 2020, people were understandably afraid.  Corporations began rapidly shedding jobs, the stock market tanked, and there was little optimism in the world. 

 

We had just put up a home for sale for a client that month (who really needed to sell) and we were concerned that COVID-19 would adversely affect the market.  We lowered the price and worked quickly to get it under contract before things got worse. 

 

However, the adverse effect on Charlotte housing prices never really happened; in fact, prices actually climbed and continue to climb.  We probably should have raised the price!

 

So why am I bringing up my poor predictive skills?

 

Sometimes it is more effective to forget the short-term noise of what is going on and stick to market fundamentals.  The market fundamentals for Charlotte are that 66 people on average are moving here every day and that number will probably increase as people flee big cities for more space.

 

There is also a housing shortage in Charlotte.  This has been exacerbated as people are “sheltering-in-place” and not putting their homes on the market.  The fundamental “supply vs. demand” rule takes effect and prices rise with scarcity.

 

Things can change quickly, but fundamentals and long term trends tend to move glacially or not at all. 

 

And political incumbent candidates usually win…

 

Happy Landlording!