Predicting Presidents & Charlotte Real Estate Prices

 

There are people who are very interested in politics, especially in the US presidential election every four years.  “It’s the most important election of our lifetime!  Think of the children!”  I don’t fall into this camp.  However, I do like to try to predict who will win.

 

That doesn’t mean I’m any good at it, unfortunately.

 

I try to use “common sense” on who will win- ha, ha!  Below are the actual winners from the past few elections and my rationale at the time for why there was no way they could win:

 

2008: Barack Obama.  I was wrong.  I didn’t see how a community organizer with no experience running anything could win.  Plus, he shared his middle name with a top, evil dictator.

 

2012: Barack Obama.  I was wrong again.  The economy was in shambles and the “Great Recession” was on his watch.  I wasn’t sure that President Obama could effectively keep blaming former President GW Bush for the poor economy his entire term.

 

2016: Donald Trump: Wrong on this one too.  Where do I start on how I didn’t think his election was possible?  I mean he didn’t even think he was going to win.

 

2020: ???  Pollsters say Joe Biden is close to a shoo-in. 

 

Now let’s shift to Charlotte real estate.  When COVID-19 began to affect our lives in March 2020, people were understandably afraid.  Corporations began rapidly shedding jobs, the stock market tanked, and there was little optimism in the world. 

 

We had just put up a home for sale for a client that month (who really needed to sell) and we were concerned that COVID-19 would adversely affect the market.  We lowered the price and worked quickly to get it under contract before things got worse. 

 

However, the adverse effect on Charlotte housing prices never really happened; in fact, prices actually climbed and continue to climb.  We probably should have raised the price!

 

So why am I bringing up my poor predictive skills?

 

Sometimes it is more effective to forget the short-term noise of what is going on and stick to market fundamentals.  The market fundamentals for Charlotte are that 66 people on average are moving here every day and that number will probably increase as people flee big cities for more space.

 

There is also a housing shortage in Charlotte.  This has been exacerbated as people are “sheltering-in-place” and not putting their homes on the market.  The fundamental “supply vs. demand” rule takes effect and prices rise with scarcity.

 

Things can change quickly, but fundamentals and long term trends tend to move glacially or not at all. 

 

And political incumbent candidates usually win…

 

Happy Landlording!

COVID-19 Rent Collections: OK to Say “I Don’t Know”?

 

 

“Dewey Defeats Truman”

Chicago Daily Tribune headline on 11/3/48

 

“Even fools are thought wise if they keep silent, and discerning if they hold their tongues.”

Proverbs 17:28

 

My 6-year old son is tasked with completing school assessment tests this week on the computer.  It’s a stressful time for him!  Not only does he have to deal with new questions about numbers and words, he has to figure out how to use a mouse for the first time.  It’s a lot for a new, aspirant student.

 

My wife thinks some of the questions may be out of the scope of a Kindergarten-educated child.  “Three-digit subtraction questions?  Scandalous!  How could he know such things at this point?”

 

So he’s tackling an assessment question like:

 

Q.  What is 100 – 80?

1. 35
2. 20
3. I don’t know!
4. I really don’t know!  (Can I watch TV now?)

 

The truthful answers for him are clearly C or D (with a hard lean on D).  But for us educated folk who have been taking tests all our lives, we know at minimum we need to answer A or B.  Nobody gets any points for offering “I don’t know” on a test!  We only get points for knowing (or acting like we know and guessing correctly).  But we really should know stuff, right? 

 

Or maybe that’s the limitation with tests when we implement this methodology in real life.  With tests, there’s always one right answer that is evident if the data is studied and understood.  But reality can be very different. 

 

For example, take this COVID-19 situation for property managers.  We’re asked questions from clients like, “Do you expect tenants to pay rent next month?”  Or, more directly, “Will my tenants pay rent next month?”  As someone in the property management field for the past 16 years, I should be able to answer that question, right?

 

Well, I read the same articles that everyone else did with statistics from large apartment provider associations saying 33% of tenants didn’t expect to be able to make their rental payments this summer.  Wow!  1 in 3, that’s bad.  Then I received calls from a few of our tenants telling me about their job losses and wondering if any of our owner-clients would be offering “Free Rent” until things were back to normal.  Data was not promising, both empirically and anecdotally.

 

All of this must have meant that we were going to experience some rough times with the rental properties we manage in the Charlotte-Metro area, right?  So I jotted off letters every month this summer to our owner-clients telling them to expect some rental disruption.  I thought I knew what was going to happen and then I relayed this to our clients.

 

So what happened?  Everyone this entire summer paid (with the exception of literally 1 tenant who is moving out).  And the number of late paying tenants was half of what we usually have.

 

What do I know? 

 

What is 100 – 80?  Fortunately, I can help with that one.  But are tenants going to continue paying on time and in full next month?  I really don’t know.  (But I hope so!)

 

Happy Landlording!

Lost in Translation: Landlords Are Not “Pants”

“OK… but do we rock?”

(Opus from “Bloom County” after reading his band’s confusing review in Rolling Stone)

I remember back when I was in college and I had the opportunity to be a student-athlete abroad in Merrie Olde England.  I thought the new scenery shouldn’t be that hard to figure out being they spoke English over there.  But I didn’t account for some of their slang that as a “Yankee” I wasn’t privy to.

I was on the American football team and we had a pretty mediocre record.  In our defense, we only had about 20 guys, so most of us were playing offense, defense, and special teams.  We had some good players so we were able to keep the score close for most games (and win some of them), but exhaustion would set in during the fourth quarter due to our lack of depth; this would sometimes doom us.

Very few fans (aka only our friends) showed up for these fake “football” games (aka not soccer).  So I really didn’t know if anyone cared or thought we were any good.  However, someone pointed out that an article had been written about the team, so I was anxious to read it (was I mentioned in it???).  I was in the computer lab later that day and found it.

Now, I’m not sure if the writer was trying to appear impartial, but I had a hard time figuring out what his take on us was.  And then I wasn’t sure if he even understood what he was watching, as he used some soccer references to describe the action.  He listed some good things about us and then list some bad things, and then vice-versa.  Finally, at the end of the article, he gave his summation.  “All in all, the Staffordshire Stallions are pants.”

“Pants”??  What the heck does that mean?  I was at a loss.  Do we rock?  That’s what I wanted to know.

So I nudged the guy beside me and asked him what “pants” meant.  He looked at me for a second, noticed my American baseball cap, and had pity.  He said, ‘It means rubbish, complete rubbish.”  Ouch.

For us to have a .500 record and beat some much bigger schools with 60+ players on their sidelines, I wasn’t sure how fair his assessment was.  Some of our 20 guys hadn’t really even played before and were pressed into action.  The article really could have been about how well we were doing despite the odds being stacked against us every game (and then how some “American saviors” were making their mark…).

I bring up this story because it reminds me of negative press landlords are taking for being against the eviction moratorium (not legally being allowed to file for eviction for non-payment) imposed now during COVID-19.  The plight of affected tenants has been well-documented and no one wants this economic devastation.  But to make landlords the villains is ridiculous.

I “know a friend” who manages a property where the tenant has not made a rental payment in 2020.  My friend’s client still needs to make a mortgage payment, insurance, and property taxes every month without any offsetting revenue coming in.  He provides a service where an agreement was made to pay him for it, and he is not getting it.  And he has nowhere to go for help.

I’m not sure if any of our property management clients are multi-millionaires who are immune if no rent comes in on their rental houses.  I get calls and e-mails from concerned owners when a tenant is late in paying or a repair seems on the high side.  Most need the rents to keep their real estate investments afloat.  I don’t know of any that are sitting on their yacht in the Mediterranean who rarely need to check a bank account!

Some of the criticism probably comes from people who just don’t understand the real estate investment game.  On the other hand, I also understand (during tough times especially) that eviction is dirty word and can appear heartless. 

But this is a situation that has been lost in translation.  Landlords are not “pants” for wanting to receive their rental payments for providing houses for people to live in and making repairs to keep them functional.  It makes sense for them to have the option of legal recourse to go to if things are not working out.  They rock for trying to keep their obligations up-to-date during tough times.

In summation, the COVID-19 economic situation is “pants”, not landlords (or the 1998-1999 Staffordshire Stallions, for that matter).

Happy Landlording!

Virtual Life With Virtual Rental Home Showings?

“Ain’t Nothing Like The Real Thing, (Baby)”

Marvin Gaye & Tammi Terrell

I don’t think I’ve ever written on the same topic four months in a row, but COVID-19 has affected every facet of life so abruptly; it’s tough to avoid. 

Everything in life has changed when you can’t be with other people and are scared (or not allowed) to go places.  Some things have been enhanced (more time with your family in your home & no commute) and others have been limited or discontinued. 

In the limited and discontinued space, compromises were made to replicate virtually what was lost physically:

“If we can’t meet in person, we’ll have an awesome Zoom.com meeting.”

“Let’s do drive-in church where we watch our pastor on a big screen from the church parking lot in our cars and honk when we like what he says.”

“Let’s watch world-renown artists sing in their homes instead of going to watch them live in a stadium.”

“With no live sports, let’s re-watch Game 7 of the 2016 NBA Finals or NASCAR’s iRacing where their drivers are essentially playing a video game from their homes.  That’s awesome!”

 “There’s no need to hold the new grandson when you can just FaceTime him and wave!  It’s virtually the same thing.”

These compromises, though necessary, are certainly not the same thing; I’d say they are not even close.  It’s like seeing a shadow of a person instead of the person.  Or it’s like seeing a picture of the New York City as opposed to standing in the middle of Times Square.  These compromises are largely ineffective, counterfeit replacements.

I remember in my early sales career when I tried to avoid the time and energy of meeting customers, my boss would always say, “You can’t fax a handshake.”  (Note: in retrospect, I need to never give that example again as both of those things seem to be relics of the past and will make me sound really dated...)  Nevertheless, the point is that there is immense value in seeing people, places, and things in person. 

A Realtor friend of mine called me the other day and was talking about how “virtual” house buying (aka seeing a video of a house and making an offer sight unseen) was gaining enormous traction.  And really, I have no problems from that from the sales-side.

Why?  In NC, we are a caveat emptor (“let the buyer beware”) state; this essentially means that after you close on a property, there are no “take-backs”.  Once the house is bought, it’s yours- it’s over even if after you move-in you decide you don’t like it for some reason.

With rental homes, it’s a different story.  Back when we first started offering property management in Charlotte, BDF Realty would allow “sight unseen” rentals.  Most of the time, it was fine.  But there were a small number of people who decided they hated the house after they actually saw it in-person; this created problems.  They had already signed a lease and had moved in their furniture when they decided they wanted to move.  The reason was a problem with the neighborhood, or the size if the rooms when they were actually in them, or a number of things that would have been avoided if they had seen the rental home in person.  But, unlike when a house is sold, there was someone they could complain to- the property manager.

Virtual rental home showings just can’t replicate what seeing a home in-person can.  Sometimes just driving a neighborhood or stepping into a home will immediately eliminate it from consideration.  We don’t want renters being forced to live in a home for a year if it is going to be a disaster from the get-go.  That’s not good for anyone- the renters, owners, or the management company.

Virtual life has its limits.  It’s wise to exercise caution on the rental home side with a virtual-only approach.  There ain’t nothing like the real thing, baby!

Happy Landlording!

Credit Reports (YAWN) & COVID Tenant Placement

“Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.”

“Iron” Mike Tyson

The “sleep industry” (from bedding, sound control, “sleep consultants”, prescription pills, etc.) is estimated to be a $30B-$40B annual business growing by 8% year.  That’s a lot of money going to something that should naturally be free; and, unfortunately, the inability to sleep seems to be an issue that keeps growing.

My father told me that a solution that always worked for him was to read textbooks.  It made sense, but most adults (thankfully!) don’t have many lying around.  However, if you’re in the property management arena, you do have a lot of credit reports you can read through that will have the same effect. 

On a single rental application, it is possible to have 20+ pages per person.  Every open and closed line of credit they’ve ever had in their lives is listed.  It can be painful reading and sorting through them as the pages can begin to just run together…

Many property management companies outsource the application process.  I get it!  No one wants to read through the reports and try to put together how someone’s finances link to whether they’ll be a good tenant, especially when 10-20 applications are coming in per property.  It’s arduous.  That’s why it’s common for property management companies to have credit score minimums- for example, if you don’t have a minimum 600 credit score, your application will automatically denied.

There are a couple problems with that approach, in my opinion.  The first is that if every landlord did that, there would be a lot of people in the streets who weren’t eligible to rent a house.  That seems harsh, unfair, and inhumane. 

The second is that a credit score alone is insufficient to gauge an applicant’s true financial strength.  I think the level of debt to how much available credit they have is a huge indicator.  A credit score rewards taking on debt to a certain extent as it measures whether debt payments are being made in a timely fashion; people with no debt (or utilized available credit) seem to have lower credit scores because there is less of a payment track record to go off of.  Should people be penalized for that?  I guess I have an “old-school” mindset where I think not having debt is preferable to the alternative.

Thirdly, I like to see cash flow and where it is going.  I’ve had 700+ credit score applicants who have so much debt to pay off that after their monthly debt obligations (aka credit cards, financed cars, etc.) there is little room to pay rent and other niceties of life (like food). 

This is where COVID and tenant placement comes in.  How strong is the applicant?  Can they pay when times are good and bad?  Can applicants take a financial punch?  COVID is a huge punch to almost everyone.  But even putting COVID aside, a punch could be an unexpected job loss, big car repair, or some other major expense that life throws at everyone at some point.  Can it be weathered?

That’s where I find the credit report to be an invaluable tool and a “must-read”.  I always felt that the #1 responsibility of property managers is to keep the rents flowing to the owners.  And property managers are only as good as the bench of good-paying tenants they have in their properties.  How strong is the bench?  Can it handle adversity?

COVID has and will continue to put things to the test.  I think the practice of pouring that extra cup of coffee while poring over the credit reports will prove to be time well spent.

Happy Landlording!  And Stay Safe!

COVID-19 Landlords: 7 Positive Developments

“The grass is always greener on the other side.”

Ovid

 “Every cloud has a silver lining.”

John Milton

When I was growing up, I liked to complain.  And now that I’m older, I wish I didn’t complain, but sadly it still happens a lot (mostly in my head as I’m usually bright enough to keep it to myself).  Old habits die hard, or don’t die at all.  Thankfulness is not a natural response for me.

When I was a kid complaining about doing yard work, my older brother asked me what I’d prefer to be doing instead.  “Anything!  Riding my bike, playing basketball, watching TV…”  He looked at me, smiled, and walked away.

Later, after I had finished the yard work, I started to complain that there was nothing to do.  “I’m so bored!” I wailed.  My brother was in earshot and asked me about all the things I would have been doing if it wasn’t for the yard work.  “Oh yeah… I forgot about those.”

I try to keep that story in mind with the current COVID-19 situation.  When I was (sniff, sniff) “sooo busy” and wishing I could be doing “something else” prior to it, “something else” time came abruptly and is largely here for the foreseeable future.  But now I can’t seem to recall most of what else I wanted to do.  Now I just think of the things I’d prefer to be doing if things were back to normal: meet with people, go to public places, take “non-essential” travel, etc.

If I was smart, I’d begin to write a list of all the things I wanted to do after this pandemic is stamped out; then I’d have a list of awesome activities waiting for me.  Ironically (and sadly), when things went back to normal, I could work on my list of things to do when the next pandemic rolled around and I had a lot more isolated, free time. 

In truth, every situation has pros and cons.  So I thought I would focus on the positive developments in property management during this COVID-19 period and give thanks for the following 7 things:

1. The government is giving money out to everyone. Money pays rent.

2. The lease renewal rate is way up.  This keeps cash flowing for landlords and gives tenants stability amidst uncertainty.

3. Tenant repair requests seem to be low, which is a bit surprising to me.  I thought with people being home more often, they’d find the time to point out more things that are broken.  However, local ordinances would only allow us to repair major system issues, so many requests would be denied anyway as a matter of law.  Tenants have told me they are fixing some things on their own which saves landlords money.

4. Mutual understanding seems to be up.  Owners understand some tenants are in tough spots (and vice-versa) and are showing patience.  And tenants seem to understand that it’s tough for owners to pay for repairs (and their mortgage) if they aren’t taking in any rent from them.

5. The Charlotte market has finally slowed a bit.  It’s been 6-7 years of almost non-stop growth and activity.  Though no one will admit ever wanting it, but a breather isn’t always a bad thing.

6. Existing tenants who are moving out of their rental houses are happy not to have prospective tenants visiting as the new local ordinance outlaws showing occupied homes.  Landlords are saved from having to begin unwanted showings and the (sometimes) tough conversations that go along with them.

7. There is (much) more time to spend with family.  The peer and societal pressure to be involved with outside things has almost completely dissipated.  I’m not sure when we will have this type of relative freedom ever again.

In the most negative situations where there are ample items to complain about, there are always positive developments as well.  Be thankful for what you can– there’s more than you think.

Happy Landlording!  And Stay Safe!

Property Managing the Coronavirus: Business as Usual?

“…There is nothing new under the sun.”

King Solomon in Ecclesiastes 1:9

Well, I’ve been doing this property management thing for a while now and this coronavirus is new.  The sick game of infection tag (where you actually don’t have to even touch but be in a 6-foot radius) is baffling and scary. 

But the underlying trend of “social distancing” has been growing rapidly in property management.  That’s not new at all.  Technology has made distancing all the rage in the name of cost and efficiency.   Marketing houses on-line, self-showings, on-line requirements and applications, on-line payments, and e-signing leases make meeting almost obsolete.  Right?

I mean, who wants to meet with the public?  And from the public’s perspective, who wants to meet with the property managers?  Both parties would probably be happiest just transacting impersonally.  It’s faster and both parties get what they want.

When this crisis first started, it led to going through our processes to see where we had physical contact with customers or were the cause of other people (Realtors, vendors, etc.) having contact with our customers at our direction or with our permission.

We changed the following business practices this week:

1. No in-person home showings by us of vacant properties
2. No showings of tenant-occupied properties by us or other Realtors
3. No in-person lease signings
4. Suspended in-home quarterly inspections
5. No in-home repairs on non-major systems

We want everyone to be safe and support the government’s efforts on tamping down and eliminating this threat.

Technology allows us to still operate the property management business and serve our customers under these conditions.  So I’m thankful for that.  However, it was eye-opening to me on how little of an adjustment it was to batten the hatches.  And I wonder if this is just the excuse property managers are looking for to make these changes permanent.

I hope not.  I find one of the toughest things to decide on with all the technology offerings at our disposal is how much of the people element we want to wring out of the system in the name of “efficiency” (I’m not sure how much more efficient some of this actually makes us, but that’s for another blog…).  The personal stuff makes us a company, not just property management robots.  I feel there’s a ton of value there.

I like meeting our owners, tenants, and vendors in-person.  I can try to make some business case that it helps us get better service, improves retention, improves Google ratings, blah blah blah… But at the end of the day, I want to like being at work!   And that has a lot to do with personal relationships, the kinds that are formed best without “distancing”.

Business with coronavirus may be the culmination of where property management has been going since the birth of the internet.  But I think we’ll all be poorer if this ever becomes business as usual.

Happy Landlording!  And Stay Safe!